28 June 2016

Financial markets are in turmoil after the Brexit vote. But Dr Arman Eshraghi says behavioural finance tells us they will recover. Albeit to a new normal.

When the news broke, I was as shocked as I was saddened to hear Britain had voted to leave the EU. At first there was a sense of disbelief among people the world over. And this feeling soon found its way to financial markets.

A very brief period of calm quickly turned to turmoil. The FTSE fell 8% in its lowest one-day slump since the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, wiping off £120bn in losses at one point. And the pound tumbled against the dollar 13% to its lowest level in more than 30 years.

But troubled as I am about this outcome, as an expert in Behavioural Finance I take some solace in believing the markets will, in time, recover – albeit to a new normal. Because the behaviour of financial markets isn’t an independent phenomenon. They react, just as people do.

In the same way we experience grief, markets react in distinct stages when major unanticipated news hits. Just as humans tend to denial at first, they’re initially most likely to underreact – not entirely sure where they stand.

But once the news sinks in, traders tend to go through the same emotional rollercoaster of powerful, frequently – from excitement to anger and anxiety – as we all do. Something which can cause the market to overreact.

It is difficult to say for sure, but we may still be experiencing this overreaction following the Brexit vote.

Giving human voice to market activity can be comforting – it makes it easy for us to understand when we say they’re ‘shocked’, ‘surprised’ or ‘angered’.

But it’s crucially important not to read too much into their ups and downs. They can become volatile for all manner of reasons and it’s not just humans driving markets these days.

The way they behave is also likely to be affected by the spread of automated trading, ‘’ or complex financial products.

The coming days and weeks will be rocky as the global financial community – like us all – comes to terms with what’s now on the table for the UK. But, ultimately, financial markets will come to accept things, as the dust begins to settle.


Dr Arman Eshraghi is Lecturer in Finance and Accounting and Director of the MSc in Finance & Investment.